TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership – Future Pathways
Financing the Future Energy Supply
Forum 27 | Hall 5 Digital Poster Plaza 5
13
October
12:30
14:30
UTC+3
Experts will discuss investment trends, risk management, and the role of public and private sectors in an evolving energy industry amidst a dynamic global transition. The panel will also address challenges in financing the energy transition, policy and market uncertainties, and adaptation to technological advancements. Join us to gain insights into innovative financing models, opportunities for growth, and how to ensure a stable and sustainable energy future.
This study proposes a novel national framework for just transition financing, grounded in a financial leadership pathway within cross-sectoral coordination. Embedding the principles of just transition into banking activities emerges as an effective strategy to develop clean energy supply-demand chains while ensuring equitable economic and social outcomes. Key roles and responsibilities for public and private stakeholders are outlined in a structured business plan (BP), supported by Delegation of Authority (DOA) provisions: 1) Ministry of Petroleum: Identifies and prioritizes projects with high GHG reduction potential (Scope 1 & 2 emissions) based on techno-economic analyses and Greenium effects; 2) Ministry of Economy: Assesses project alignment with just transition criteria, including regional economic diversification, governance strengthening, human capital development, and workforce justice; 3) Designated Green Bank: Implements industry-leading environmental and social safeguards. It issues tradable green certificates for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) compliant processes and products. Financing mechanisms linked to certificate trading between different stakeholders are proposed; 4) Private Sector Engagement: Energy-demanding entities co-finance clean energy operations through incentives like green-labeled products. Financial support includes direct investments, credit facilitation, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) budgets, with green certificate credits weighted by participation level. Green loans (lower interest rates) and debt instruments further incentivize adoption to support projects utilizing green products. The mentioned framework is applied to CO₂-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) projects. Different scenarios configured various reservoirs and CO₂ source -including carbon capture from refineries, steel, and power plants- are evaluated. Downstream industries (e.g., steelworks) benefit from cleaner energy streams and green-certified products. Industries such as steel manufacturers and subsidiaries may engage financially due to market incentives for green-labeled products. Additionally, green loans for infrastructure (e.g., green pipelines/vessels) of EOR-CO₂ projects, with a traded green project portfolio facilitated by circulating green certificates. The cash flow of these interconnected projects is analyzed, and a green credit flow model is proposed accordingly. Results show that depend on characteristic of each scenario, specific projects can be successfully financed within this integrated circular system. Ultimately, this innovative approach illustrates how financial leadership can foster large-scale sustainable energy projects, advancing both decarbonization and just transition objectives.
The petroleum industry is going through a period of significant uncertainty, shaped by geopolitical instability, shifting regulations, market volatility, and the global push toward cleaner energy sources. In this evolving landscape, traditional decision-making methods often fall short in capturing the full complexity of market dynamics. AI, when combined with expert insights, offers a way to enhance decision-making by providing speed, accuracy, and flexibility, helping industry leaders and investors make better financial choices.
This project introduces an AI-driven approach to scenario modeling, designed to improve strategic decision-making in the petroleum sector. AI processes vast amounts of information, including market trends, regulatory signals, expert analyses, and real-time economic data, to build predictive scenarios that help companies navigate uncertainty. Unlike traditional models, AI can incorporate both numerical data and expert viewpoints, leading to more reliable forecasts and investment strategies. When combined with real options theory, AI helps determine the right moments to invest, disinvest, or adjust financial plans based on changing future conditions.
The work first examines how AI-powered tools are currently used across the industry, from daily operations to risk management and long-term strategic planning. It then explores AI’s expanding role in refining market forecasts, improving financial models, and supporting executive decision-making when paired with human expertise.
Building on previous studies, industry case studies, and insights from my doctoral thesis, this analysis highlights both theoretical foundations and practical applications of AI in investment strategy. By integrating AI with economic modeling and expert judgment, petroleum companies can refine business strategies, mitigate risks, and optimize investment decisions in an uncertain economic climate. This analysis presents a clear framework for industry leaders looking to modernize their approach to decision-making.
This project introduces an AI-driven approach to scenario modeling, designed to improve strategic decision-making in the petroleum sector. AI processes vast amounts of information, including market trends, regulatory signals, expert analyses, and real-time economic data, to build predictive scenarios that help companies navigate uncertainty. Unlike traditional models, AI can incorporate both numerical data and expert viewpoints, leading to more reliable forecasts and investment strategies. When combined with real options theory, AI helps determine the right moments to invest, disinvest, or adjust financial plans based on changing future conditions.
The work first examines how AI-powered tools are currently used across the industry, from daily operations to risk management and long-term strategic planning. It then explores AI’s expanding role in refining market forecasts, improving financial models, and supporting executive decision-making when paired with human expertise.
Building on previous studies, industry case studies, and insights from my doctoral thesis, this analysis highlights both theoretical foundations and practical applications of AI in investment strategy. By integrating AI with economic modeling and expert judgment, petroleum companies can refine business strategies, mitigate risks, and optimize investment decisions in an uncertain economic climate. This analysis presents a clear framework for industry leaders looking to modernize their approach to decision-making.
By 2050, global oil investment will be shaped by the transition to renewable energy, geopolitical shifts, and evolving demand dynamics. Despite the rise of clean energy, oil is expected to remain relevant in certain sectors, such as petrochemicals and aviation, though overall demand may decline. Investment strategies will prioritize cost efficiency, carbon capture technologies, and sustainable extraction methods to align with net-zero commitments. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa may drive demand growth, while developed economies accelerate decarbonization. Geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and climate policies will heavily influence investment decisions, leading to a more selective and strategic approach in the oil sector. The industry’s future will depend on balancing profitability with environmental responsibility, navigating a complex energy landscape.In this article, the global oil investment outlook is examined and statistically analyzed.
The global energy transition demands inclusive financing to achieve sustainability, affordability, and security, engaging individuals, communities, and institutions in transformative climate action. This study proposes a Company-Managed Sustainability Investment Platform (CMSIP), enabling employees to invest salaries or bonuses in corporate-led green projects, such as solar microgrids, waste-to-energy systems, or carbon capture pilots, while leveraging India’s ₹1 lakh crore annual CSR pool. Unlike provident funds or REITs, CMSIP harnesses corporate expertise—technical, regulatory, and R&D—to deploy innovative technologies, including those requiring Patent and Technology Rights (PTR), fostering grassroots innovation and societal impact.
CMSIP aligns with schemes like PM Suryaghar Muft Bijli Yojana of India, targeting solar panels for 100 million households with ₹30,000–₹78,000/kW subsidies, and the National Solar Mission, aiming for 100 GW solar capacity by 2030. Employees and their families, including unemployed children, participate in project implementation, gaining hands-on experience in technologies like advanced solar inverters or biomass gasifiers. This exposure equips them with real-time knowledge for higher studies or careers in new companies, fostering employability. Mutual MoUs between employee unions of different firms pool engineering and construction skills, enabling billion-dollar projects driven by employee contributions and voluntary time, strengthening workplace and community bonds.
By facilitating PTR acquisition, CMSIP revives globally transferred but underutilized technologies, such as energy storage or carbon-sequestering materials, scaling them for public good. Small-scale pilots, funded by CMSIP and CSR, test innovations like a 100 kW solar-battery system, offsetting 120 tons of CO₂ annually and saving 60% on energy costs. Weekend brainstorming and sub-committees drive community-specific solutions, like rural off-grid systems. Redirecting 50% of CSR funds could support 500 MW of renewable projects yearly, creating 10,000 jobs, including opportunities for employee families, and cutting emissions by 600,000 tons. Collaborations with institutes like IITs or MIT refine technologies, enhancing reliability.
Public-private synergies, supported by green bonds and blended finance, mitigate policy volatility and costs, while corporate governance ensures transparent fund management. CMSIP transforms workplaces into green innovation hubs, aligning with India’s 2070 net-zero goal, empowering communities, enhancing employability, and redefining investment as a catalyst for equitable, sustainable energy access and resilience.
CMSIP aligns with schemes like PM Suryaghar Muft Bijli Yojana of India, targeting solar panels for 100 million households with ₹30,000–₹78,000/kW subsidies, and the National Solar Mission, aiming for 100 GW solar capacity by 2030. Employees and their families, including unemployed children, participate in project implementation, gaining hands-on experience in technologies like advanced solar inverters or biomass gasifiers. This exposure equips them with real-time knowledge for higher studies or careers in new companies, fostering employability. Mutual MoUs between employee unions of different firms pool engineering and construction skills, enabling billion-dollar projects driven by employee contributions and voluntary time, strengthening workplace and community bonds.
By facilitating PTR acquisition, CMSIP revives globally transferred but underutilized technologies, such as energy storage or carbon-sequestering materials, scaling them for public good. Small-scale pilots, funded by CMSIP and CSR, test innovations like a 100 kW solar-battery system, offsetting 120 tons of CO₂ annually and saving 60% on energy costs. Weekend brainstorming and sub-committees drive community-specific solutions, like rural off-grid systems. Redirecting 50% of CSR funds could support 500 MW of renewable projects yearly, creating 10,000 jobs, including opportunities for employee families, and cutting emissions by 600,000 tons. Collaborations with institutes like IITs or MIT refine technologies, enhancing reliability.
Public-private synergies, supported by green bonds and blended finance, mitigate policy volatility and costs, while corporate governance ensures transparent fund management. CMSIP transforms workplaces into green innovation hubs, aligning with India’s 2070 net-zero goal, empowering communities, enhancing employability, and redefining investment as a catalyst for equitable, sustainable energy access and resilience.
Nurgul Akhmetbekova
Vice Chair
Head of Division, Budgeting & Planning Department
KazMunayGas
Kazakhstan
The global energy transition demands inclusive financing to achieve sustainability, affordability, and security, engaging individuals, communities, and institutions in transformative climate action. This study proposes a Company-Managed Sustainability Investment Platform (CMSIP), enabling employees to invest salaries or bonuses in corporate-led green projects, such as solar microgrids, waste-to-energy systems, or carbon capture pilots, while leveraging India’s ₹1 lakh crore annual CSR pool. Unlike provident funds or REITs, CMSIP harnesses corporate expertise—technical, regulatory, and R&D—to deploy innovative technologies, including those requiring Patent and Technology Rights (PTR), fostering grassroots innovation and societal impact.
CMSIP aligns with schemes like PM Suryaghar Muft Bijli Yojana of India, targeting solar panels for 100 million households with ₹30,000–₹78,000/kW subsidies, and the National Solar Mission, aiming for 100 GW solar capacity by 2030. Employees and their families, including unemployed children, participate in project implementation, gaining hands-on experience in technologies like advanced solar inverters or biomass gasifiers. This exposure equips them with real-time knowledge for higher studies or careers in new companies, fostering employability. Mutual MoUs between employee unions of different firms pool engineering and construction skills, enabling billion-dollar projects driven by employee contributions and voluntary time, strengthening workplace and community bonds.
By facilitating PTR acquisition, CMSIP revives globally transferred but underutilized technologies, such as energy storage or carbon-sequestering materials, scaling them for public good. Small-scale pilots, funded by CMSIP and CSR, test innovations like a 100 kW solar-battery system, offsetting 120 tons of CO₂ annually and saving 60% on energy costs. Weekend brainstorming and sub-committees drive community-specific solutions, like rural off-grid systems. Redirecting 50% of CSR funds could support 500 MW of renewable projects yearly, creating 10,000 jobs, including opportunities for employee families, and cutting emissions by 600,000 tons. Collaborations with institutes like IITs or MIT refine technologies, enhancing reliability.
Public-private synergies, supported by green bonds and blended finance, mitigate policy volatility and costs, while corporate governance ensures transparent fund management. CMSIP transforms workplaces into green innovation hubs, aligning with India’s 2070 net-zero goal, empowering communities, enhancing employability, and redefining investment as a catalyst for equitable, sustainable energy access and resilience.
CMSIP aligns with schemes like PM Suryaghar Muft Bijli Yojana of India, targeting solar panels for 100 million households with ₹30,000–₹78,000/kW subsidies, and the National Solar Mission, aiming for 100 GW solar capacity by 2030. Employees and their families, including unemployed children, participate in project implementation, gaining hands-on experience in technologies like advanced solar inverters or biomass gasifiers. This exposure equips them with real-time knowledge for higher studies or careers in new companies, fostering employability. Mutual MoUs between employee unions of different firms pool engineering and construction skills, enabling billion-dollar projects driven by employee contributions and voluntary time, strengthening workplace and community bonds.
By facilitating PTR acquisition, CMSIP revives globally transferred but underutilized technologies, such as energy storage or carbon-sequestering materials, scaling them for public good. Small-scale pilots, funded by CMSIP and CSR, test innovations like a 100 kW solar-battery system, offsetting 120 tons of CO₂ annually and saving 60% on energy costs. Weekend brainstorming and sub-committees drive community-specific solutions, like rural off-grid systems. Redirecting 50% of CSR funds could support 500 MW of renewable projects yearly, creating 10,000 jobs, including opportunities for employee families, and cutting emissions by 600,000 tons. Collaborations with institutes like IITs or MIT refine technologies, enhancing reliability.
Public-private synergies, supported by green bonds and blended finance, mitigate policy volatility and costs, while corporate governance ensures transparent fund management. CMSIP transforms workplaces into green innovation hubs, aligning with India’s 2070 net-zero goal, empowering communities, enhancing employability, and redefining investment as a catalyst for equitable, sustainable energy access and resilience.
Mohammad Alami Bayat
Speaker
Head of the Office of American Countries Affairs
Ministry of Petroleum
The petroleum industry is going through a period of significant uncertainty, shaped by geopolitical instability, shifting regulations, market volatility, and the global push toward cleaner energy sources. In this evolving landscape, traditional decision-making methods often fall short in capturing the full complexity of market dynamics. AI, when combined with expert insights, offers a way to enhance decision-making by providing speed, accuracy, and flexibility, helping industry leaders and investors make better financial choices.
This project introduces an AI-driven approach to scenario modeling, designed to improve strategic decision-making in the petroleum sector. AI processes vast amounts of information, including market trends, regulatory signals, expert analyses, and real-time economic data, to build predictive scenarios that help companies navigate uncertainty. Unlike traditional models, AI can incorporate both numerical data and expert viewpoints, leading to more reliable forecasts and investment strategies. When combined with real options theory, AI helps determine the right moments to invest, disinvest, or adjust financial plans based on changing future conditions.
The work first examines how AI-powered tools are currently used across the industry, from daily operations to risk management and long-term strategic planning. It then explores AI’s expanding role in refining market forecasts, improving financial models, and supporting executive decision-making when paired with human expertise.
Building on previous studies, industry case studies, and insights from my doctoral thesis, this analysis highlights both theoretical foundations and practical applications of AI in investment strategy. By integrating AI with economic modeling and expert judgment, petroleum companies can refine business strategies, mitigate risks, and optimize investment decisions in an uncertain economic climate. This analysis presents a clear framework for industry leaders looking to modernize their approach to decision-making.
This project introduces an AI-driven approach to scenario modeling, designed to improve strategic decision-making in the petroleum sector. AI processes vast amounts of information, including market trends, regulatory signals, expert analyses, and real-time economic data, to build predictive scenarios that help companies navigate uncertainty. Unlike traditional models, AI can incorporate both numerical data and expert viewpoints, leading to more reliable forecasts and investment strategies. When combined with real options theory, AI helps determine the right moments to invest, disinvest, or adjust financial plans based on changing future conditions.
The work first examines how AI-powered tools are currently used across the industry, from daily operations to risk management and long-term strategic planning. It then explores AI’s expanding role in refining market forecasts, improving financial models, and supporting executive decision-making when paired with human expertise.
Building on previous studies, industry case studies, and insights from my doctoral thesis, this analysis highlights both theoretical foundations and practical applications of AI in investment strategy. By integrating AI with economic modeling and expert judgment, petroleum companies can refine business strategies, mitigate risks, and optimize investment decisions in an uncertain economic climate. This analysis presents a clear framework for industry leaders looking to modernize their approach to decision-making.
By 2050, global oil investment will be shaped by the transition to renewable energy, geopolitical shifts, and evolving demand dynamics. Despite the rise of clean energy, oil is expected to remain relevant in certain sectors, such as petrochemicals and aviation, though overall demand may decline. Investment strategies will prioritize cost efficiency, carbon capture technologies, and sustainable extraction methods to align with net-zero commitments. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa may drive demand growth, while developed economies accelerate decarbonization. Geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and climate policies will heavily influence investment decisions, leading to a more selective and strategic approach in the oil sector. The industry’s future will depend on balancing profitability with environmental responsibility, navigating a complex energy landscape.In this article, the global oil investment outlook is examined and statistically analyzed.
Mahdieh Askarian
Speaker
Head of Technology Policy Making
Ministry of Petroleum, National Iranian Oil Company
This study proposes a novel national framework for just transition financing, grounded in a financial leadership pathway within cross-sectoral coordination. Embedding the principles of just transition into banking activities emerges as an effective strategy to develop clean energy supply-demand chains while ensuring equitable economic and social outcomes. Key roles and responsibilities for public and private stakeholders are outlined in a structured business plan (BP), supported by Delegation of Authority (DOA) provisions: 1) Ministry of Petroleum: Identifies and prioritizes projects with high GHG reduction potential (Scope 1 & 2 emissions) based on techno-economic analyses and Greenium effects; 2) Ministry of Economy: Assesses project alignment with just transition criteria, including regional economic diversification, governance strengthening, human capital development, and workforce justice; 3) Designated Green Bank: Implements industry-leading environmental and social safeguards. It issues tradable green certificates for Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) compliant processes and products. Financing mechanisms linked to certificate trading between different stakeholders are proposed; 4) Private Sector Engagement: Energy-demanding entities co-finance clean energy operations through incentives like green-labeled products. Financial support includes direct investments, credit facilitation, and corporate social responsibility (CSR) budgets, with green certificate credits weighted by participation level. Green loans (lower interest rates) and debt instruments further incentivize adoption to support projects utilizing green products. The mentioned framework is applied to CO₂-based Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) projects. Different scenarios configured various reservoirs and CO₂ source -including carbon capture from refineries, steel, and power plants- are evaluated. Downstream industries (e.g., steelworks) benefit from cleaner energy streams and green-certified products. Industries such as steel manufacturers and subsidiaries may engage financially due to market incentives for green-labeled products. Additionally, green loans for infrastructure (e.g., green pipelines/vessels) of EOR-CO₂ projects, with a traded green project portfolio facilitated by circulating green certificates. The cash flow of these interconnected projects is analyzed, and a green credit flow model is proposed accordingly. Results show that depend on characteristic of each scenario, specific projects can be successfully financed within this integrated circular system. Ultimately, this innovative approach illustrates how financial leadership can foster large-scale sustainable energy projects, advancing both decarbonization and just transition objectives.
