Kailei Liu

2024 represents the hottest year in recorded global history, with extreme weather events occurring with increasing frequency. Despite the escalating urgency of climate change mitigation, geopolitical shifts driven by great power competition, decoupling of energy supply chains, and deceleration of energy cooperation have profoundly impacted global energy development. Particularly significant are potential adjustments to U.S. energy policies, which may alter global renewable energy growth trajectories and severely disrupt the energy transition process. Within this context, Trump’s re-election as U.S. President under his “America First” doctrine has triggered a new round of global trade wars. The long-term strategic competition among major powers has become a core variable in the changing global order, potentially driving a profound restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and altering the trajectory of the world’s energy transition and development. In light of this, our research conducted targeted scenario analysis to evaluate the emerging trends and characteristics of global energy development under the assumption of persistent major power competition. Within a context of slowed global economic growth, constrained deployment of advanced industries and energy technologies, and impeded trade in critical energy transition resources, our findings suggest that national energy strategies are expected to prioritize energy security over the energy transition. This shift is projected to widen the gap between global energy transition progress and the goals stipulated in the Paris Agreement. In such a scenario, global primary energy demand growth would decline, the shift toward a cleaner energy mix would slow, and the electrification rate of final energy consumption would fall short of expectations. Countries would increasingly rely on their local resource endowments to advance the transition, delaying the timing of peak demand for coal, oil, and natural gas. A dual parallel-market structure would emerge in the trade of major energy commodities, and insufficient effective supply would lower the peak level of fossil fuel demand relative to current expectations. Technological bottlenecks and investment constraints would significantly reduce the growth potential of wind and solar power and delay the commercialization and large-scale deployment of advanced technologies such as hydrogen energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and energy storage. By 2060, the global average temperature rise could exceed 2 ℃, and humanity would face a more severe climate crisis.