TECHNICAL PROGRAMME | Energy Leadership – Future Pathways
Public Policy (Global and Local) - Climate Change, Transition Management, Supply Security and Energy Affordability
Forum 26 | Hall 5 Digital Poster Plaza 5
13
October
10:00
12:00
UTC+3
The energy trilemma – the balance of energy sustainability, energy affordability, and energy security – is a challenge facing policy makers across the globe at both the national and local levels. The challenge is rooted in a reality that shifting any of these elements require difficult trade-offs in the others. This challenge is compounded by the fact that the impact of these decisions are not evenly distributed for stakeholders in a local community, nation, or planet, and the stakeholders have varying degrees of understanding of the issues. Providing leadership in these situations is difficult, and this session will explore case studies of what has worked or not worked and what skills and knowledge policy makers need to be effective in these situations.
This paper critically examines the economic costs of climate mitigation measures and their implications for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Through scenario-based modeling of 1.5-2°C, 3°C, and 4°C warming trajectories, it quantify the financial burdens and structural challenges associated with aligning ambitious economic transformation with global climate action. Results indicate that stringent climate policies under the 2°C scenario could incur cumulative costs of $1.2-1.5 trillion by mid-century, alongside GDP contractions of 3.2%, 5.7%, and 7.6% by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows disproportionate impacts: manufacturing faces potential carbon liabilities of 12-18% of current asset values, while tourism GDP could fall by up to 1.1% by 2040. The hydrocarbon sector remains the primary channel of economic disruption, accounting for 42% of projected GDP contractions despite diversification efforts.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The global energy transition towards renewables poses complex challenges for oil rich countries. Furthermore, such countries face increasing pressure to diversify their energy systems. Current models of energy transition in fossil fuel rich countries suffer from two critical limitations. First, they are predominantly techno economic, overlooking the entrenched socio political structures, the Petrostate complex, that actively resist change. Second, they treat the state as a monolithic actor, failing to account for the emerging, polycentric forces (e.g., digital communities, private tech startups) that could disrupt the status quo. This creates a significant gap in understanding non linear, socially driven transition pathways. The energy transition represents a critical strategic imperative for resource-dependent nations. This necessity is driven by the dual pressures of finite hydrocarbon reserves, which guarantee eventual resource depletion, and the increasing likelihood of binding international climate change legislation that could severely constrain future fossil fuel extraction. Therefore, the aim of this research is to answer the question: How do the dynamic interactions between the current structure and emerging multipolar actors shape the path of energy transition in Iran? To answer this question, we employ a systematic mapping approach. The study will categorize and track the influence, resources, and policy positions of both incumbent state actors and emerging polycentric forces to provide a definitive map of the transition arena. The expected results of this research are: The contested transition in oil-rich countries will be highlighted, highlighting the conditions under which multipolar actors can create turning points against the prevailing resistance. In addition, the findings will provide policymakers in petrostate countries with a practical tool to design interventions that empower bottom up innovation and mitigate the socio political risks of transition, ultimately outlining a viable pathway for oil rich nations to circumvent political paralysis and harness their vast resources for a renewable future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Petrostate, Iran, Polycentric Governance, Decarbonisation Policy.
Natural Gas is the most viable time-bound transition fuel for Africa as the world advances towards net-zero and equitable energy access. Over the past decade, significant natural gas discoveries have been made in Senegal, Mauritania, Ghana and proven reserves in Nigeria exceeding 200 trillion cubic feet (NNPC, 2023)[AD1] . This indicates that the west African region can leverage on natural gas to meet it energy supply deficit while pursuing the long-term decarbonization goals, with Natural Gas as the transition fuel.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
Amirhossein Ghasemi
Speaker
Master’s in Chemical Engineering
Sharif University of Technology
The global energy transition towards renewables poses complex challenges for oil rich countries. Furthermore, such countries face increasing pressure to diversify their energy systems. Current models of energy transition in fossil fuel rich countries suffer from two critical limitations. First, they are predominantly techno economic, overlooking the entrenched socio political structures, the Petrostate complex, that actively resist change. Second, they treat the state as a monolithic actor, failing to account for the emerging, polycentric forces (e.g., digital communities, private tech startups) that could disrupt the status quo. This creates a significant gap in understanding non linear, socially driven transition pathways. The energy transition represents a critical strategic imperative for resource-dependent nations. This necessity is driven by the dual pressures of finite hydrocarbon reserves, which guarantee eventual resource depletion, and the increasing likelihood of binding international climate change legislation that could severely constrain future fossil fuel extraction. Therefore, the aim of this research is to answer the question: How do the dynamic interactions between the current structure and emerging multipolar actors shape the path of energy transition in Iran? To answer this question, we employ a systematic mapping approach. The study will categorize and track the influence, resources, and policy positions of both incumbent state actors and emerging polycentric forces to provide a definitive map of the transition arena. The expected results of this research are: The contested transition in oil-rich countries will be highlighted, highlighting the conditions under which multipolar actors can create turning points against the prevailing resistance. In addition, the findings will provide policymakers in petrostate countries with a practical tool to design interventions that empower bottom up innovation and mitigate the socio political risks of transition, ultimately outlining a viable pathway for oil rich nations to circumvent political paralysis and harness their vast resources for a renewable future. Keywords: Energy Transition, Petrostate, Iran, Polycentric Governance, Decarbonisation Policy.
Hassan Alzain
Speaker
Professional Graduate
Yale University (Nationally Sponsored)
United States of America
This paper critically examines the economic costs of climate mitigation measures and their implications for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Through scenario-based modeling of 1.5-2°C, 3°C, and 4°C warming trajectories, it quantify the financial burdens and structural challenges associated with aligning ambitious economic transformation with global climate action. Results indicate that stringent climate policies under the 2°C scenario could incur cumulative costs of $1.2-1.5 trillion by mid-century, alongside GDP contractions of 3.2%, 5.7%, and 7.6% by 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Sectoral analysis shows disproportionate impacts: manufacturing faces potential carbon liabilities of 12-18% of current asset values, while tourism GDP could fall by up to 1.1% by 2040. The hydrocarbon sector remains the primary channel of economic disruption, accounting for 42% of projected GDP contractions despite diversification efforts.
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
The fiscal analysis reveals a timing mismatch: transformation investments of $290-440 billion through 2040 must be frontloaded just as oil revenues decline, creating a 25-40% revenue gap by 2040. Labor market modeling suggests a net displacement of 50,000-90,000 workers under stringent pathways, though renewable energy, hydrogen, and circular economy sectors could generate 90,000-190,000 new jobs.
Policy scenario evaluation highlights the “Balanced Transition Portfolio” as the most effective strategy, combining moderate carbon pricing, sectoral protections, and accelerated renewable deployment to reduce economic impacts by 30-45%. Additionally, introducing producer-side carbon pricing could generate $80-100 billion annually by 2030, transforming mitigation from a fiscal liability into a strategic revenue stream that funds diversification.
This study advances the dialogue on energy leadership by reframing climate mitigation not solely as a cost but as a pathway to resilience and competitive advantage. By integrating fiscal reform, sectoral adaptation, and labor market transition into a cohesive policy portfolio, Saudi Arabia, and other resource-dependent economies, can lead in shaping equitable pathways toward an energy future for all.
Keywords: Climate Mitigation Costs, Carbon Pricing, Economic Diversification, Fiscal Policy, Saudi Arabia Vision 2030, Energy Leadership
Natural Gas is the most viable time-bound transition fuel for Africa as the world advances towards net-zero and equitable energy access. Over the past decade, significant natural gas discoveries have been made in Senegal, Mauritania, Ghana and proven reserves in Nigeria exceeding 200 trillion cubic feet (NNPC, 2023)[AD1] . This indicates that the west African region can leverage on natural gas to meet it energy supply deficit while pursuing the long-term decarbonization goals, with Natural Gas as the transition fuel.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
However,, without coherent and forward-looking regulation, natural gas development risks locking the region into long-lived carbon infrastructure, undermining climate commitments, and slowing the growth of sustainable and renewable energy. To address this, the paper proposes a tailored Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) for West Africa, a policy and regulatory structure designed to guide responsible gas development while aligning with net-zero objectives and regional integration goals.
The TNGDF will be anchored on three pillars:
- Sunset Licensing for Gas Projects. Development and usage of natural gas within the transitional period ensuring alignment with renewable energy expansion. This approach ensures that infrastructures and investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel is developed on temporary basis within the timelines of renewable energy development.
- Carbon accountability measures. While natural gas emits 30-50% less carbon than coal and diesel, its transitional lifecycle should be transparently measured and be verified by appropriate authorities. There should be a regulation to make sure that gas infrastructures emit a particular set unit of carbon within the transitional lifecycle.
- Integrated Investment Strategies. Investment in natural gas as a transitional fuel should have a parallel investment into renewable energy sources. For instance, , investment funds for the development of Gas Processing Plants should have a mandatory percentage assigned to develop concurrently a renewable energy facility like solars.
In addition, the framework also emphasizes access and affordability mandates, ensuring that rural and underserved populations benefit from gas expansion. According to the IEA (2022), approximately 490 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to modern energy sources. As such, a deliberate policy intervention will do well to set off this energy disparity.
This paper draws on both professional experience in Ghana’s downstream fuel supply sector, and current academic engagement as a Master of Science candidate in Energy Economics at the Ghana Institute of Management and Public Administration. Transitional Natural Gas Development Framework (TNGDF) proposes a pragmatic roadmap for West African policymakers to balance the urgent need for net-zero development with the imperative of ensuring an equitable energy future for all.
